Wishful Thinking

By Ramesh Akkineni

from an article in Business Standard

In a TV poll conducted hours before Sania Mirza’s fourth round match against Maria Sharapova in the US Open, a full 82 per cent of those taking part in the poll predicted a Mirza victory. In another poll, 55 per cent felt Sharapova would be under greater pressure than Mirza.
The score for the one-sided match that followed may have been unfair to Mirza, but there was little doubt that it was an unequal contest, and at no stage did anything other than a Sharapova win look likely. Yet, large numbers in India had convinced themselves that a Mirza win was on the cards.
This is not a column about sport. The poll on Mirza’s chances is relevant because the tendency to make wish the father of fact goes beyond tennis matches. For instance, the easy assumption by many people today is that the 2003 BRICs report by Goldman Sachs has pre-ordained India’s destiny as one of the great economic powers of the 21st century.
Indeed, some would argue that India is already a major force to be reckoned with. This, unfortunately, is at the same level of wishful thinking as the 82 per cent who forecast a Sania Mirza victory.
Like Mirza, India has the potential to achieve greatness. And just as Mirza has to work hard at improving her serve and her mobility on court, and reducing the errors in her ground strokes, India has many things to do before it can hope to be among the front-ranking economic powers.
The inescapable fact is that even today India accounts for only 2 per cent of the world’s GDP, less than 1 per cent of world trade, less than 1 per cent of global investment flows and an even smaller share of global technology breakthroughs — with 16 per cent of the world’s people.
While it is good to be optimistic and to be conscious about the country’s latent potential, and indeed to capitalise on recent positive trends, it would be dangerous to get into the mindset that says we have already arrived.

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