Unpredictable forecasts

By Ramesh Akkineni

from an article in Business Standard

'With long-range monsoon predictions going awry year after year, the credibility of these forecasts has been severely eroded. What is worse, different agencies create confusion by coming out with vastly divergent, even contradictory, forecasts—as has happened this year.'

'So much so that last week it dramatically reversed its earlier forecast for June rainfall from “22 per cent surplus” to “34 per cent deficit”! With this kind of revision of the forecast, how can an agency expect its credibility to survive?'

'It is, therefore, no wonder that the corporate sector, agriculturists and even the stock markets have stopped taking these contradictory monsoon predictions too seriously. Of course, they do take the actual performance of the monsoon seriously enough as it unfolds over the four-month period. The Sensex itself now discounts the forecasts but takes note of real events.
What seems quite clear is that Indian meteorologists have been unable to develop a reliable monsoon prediction model though they have been trying to do so ever since the first monsoon forecast was made over 70 years ago, in 1932. This is despite the fact that after every major fiasco, the IMD invariably claims it has evolved a better prediction model.
The government, too, has been liberally investing in equipping it with better computers, satellites, radars, communication and other back-up facilities. It is of course true that the Indian monsoon is a complex global phenomenon involving the interplay of clouds, radiation, surface fluxes, air-sea interaction and other factors, but it should be possible to identify the deficiencies of our forecasting system and take corrective action.'

Popular posts from this blog

It Pays to be a Nervous Wreck

By Ramesh Akkineni
from an article in Livemint Two weeks ago, Microsoft issued the sort of quarterly report usually seen of a company in finest mettle. Redmond’s sales were up 15% and profit double that, excluding certain deferrals. And the rest of the year, it projected, would be just as sanguine—certainly unlike in the economy as a whole. Elsewhere, that would be a mandate for staying the course. In Redmond, though, they were crossing off days on their calendars, waiting until Friday, the first day of February and thus the first opportunity Microsoft would be able to truthfully state, “Okay, Yahoo, it’s been a year since we talked to you guys; where’s the beef?” Microsoft remains obsessed about Google because it reads the same things everyone else does about how Google’s style of free, “in the cloud” computing means the slow and steady decline of Windows and Office. That’s a technical debate, one in which both sides have good arguments. But....
Read more

Korean Model

By Ramesh Akkineni
from an article by Ha-Joon Chang in the Guardian In my lifetime Korea has lived through one of the greatest development miracles – half a century ago, its annual per capita income was around £50, less than half that of Ghana at the time. Today, it stands at £12,000, putting it on a par with Portugal and Slovenia. How was this possible? Korea of course did things that most people agree are important for economic development, such as investment in infrastructure, health and education. But on top of that, it also practised many policies that are now supposed to be bad for economic development: extensive use of selective industrial policy, combining protectionism with export subsidies; tough regulations on foreign direct investment; active, if not particularly extensive, use of state-owned enterprises; lax protection of patents and other intellectual property rights; heavy regulation of both domestic and international finance. The Korean experience shows that sustainabl...
Read more

Maxims from Poor Richard 3

By Ramesh Akkineni
Image
from Poor Richard's Almanac, 1735 Look before, or you'll find yourself behind. Bad Commentators spoil the best of books, So God sends meat (they say) the devil Cooks. Approve not of him who commends all you say. By diligence and patience, the mouse bit in two the cable. Full of courtesie, full of craft. A little House well fill'd, a little Field well till'd, and a little Wife well will'd, are great Riches. Old Maids lead Apes there, where the old Batchelors are turn'd to Apes. Some are weatherwise, some are otherwise. Dyrro lynn y ddoeth e fydd ddoethach. The poor man must walk to get meat for his stomach, the rich man to get a stomach to his meat. He that goes far to marry, will either deceive or be deceived. Eyes and Priests Bear no Jests. The Family of Fools is ancient. Necessity never made a good bargain. If Pride leads the Van, Beggary brings up the Rear. There's many witty men whose brains can't fill thei...
Read more