Hindsight and Foresight

By Ramesh Akkineni
Lowenstein, writing in his biography of Buffett about the events surrounding the increase in the DJIA beyond 1,000 in early 1966 and its subsequent decline by spring, noted that some of Buffett's partners called to warn him that the market might decline further. Such calls, said Buffett, raised two questions: (1) If they knew in February that the Dow was going to 865 in May, why didn't they let me in on it then; and (2) if they didn't know what was going to happen during the ensuing three months back in February, how do they know in May?

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