Bombs Away

By Ramesh Akkineni
This is from 'the consilient observer' - An unusual search procedure provides an interesting example of the power of the collective. On January 17, 1966, a B-52 bomber and a refueling airplane collided in midair while crossing the Spanish coastline. The bomber carried four nuclear bombs, three of which landed on shore and were immediately found. The fourth bomb, however, was lost in the Mediterranean and its rapid recovery was essential to U.S. national security. Assistant secretary of Defense Jack Howard called a young Naval officer, John Craven, to find the bomb. Craven assembled a diverse group of experts, and asked them to place Las Vegas-style bets on where the bomb landed. Craven ran the diverse approaches and scenarios through the bet-generated probabilities, and found the bomb shortly thereafter. No individual expert had the answer, but the combination of the all the experts did.

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